💸 Rupee Falls Sharply Past 86-Mark as Israel-Iran Conflict Deepens: What Traders Predict Next
In a significant market move, the Indian rupee plunged past the 86-per-dollar level in early trading on Friday, June 13, following fresh geopolitical tensions triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
The domestic currency opened at ₹86.14 against the US dollar, falling by 55 paise compared to Thursday’s close of ₹85.60—marking one of the steepest single-day drops in recent weeks.
🌍 What Sparked the Decline?
The currency market reacted sharply after Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion”, reportedly targeting critical Iranian nuclear and missile installations. In response, Iran vowed severe retaliation and confirmed the death of Major General Hossein Salami, commander of its elite Revolutionary Guard, intensifying fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
Israel claimed the strikes were vital to national security, but the global fallout was immediate.
🛢️ Oil Surge and Stronger Dollar Compound Pressure
Global oil prices surged on the back of the news. Brent crude jumped 9% to $75.61 per barrel, raising alarms over India’s ballooning energy import costs.
Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index climbed from 96.92 to 98.20, signaling a stronger greenback and adding further pressure on the rupee, as emerging market currencies struggled to hold ground.
🏦 RBI Intervention Provides Temporary Relief
To stem the rupee's fall, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is believed to have intervened through state-run banks, selling US dollars around the ₹86.05 level, according to traders cited by Reuters.
“The rupee touched 86.20 before pulling back to 86.04 after RBI's suspected dollar sale,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.
📉 What Lies Ahead for the Rupee?
Market sentiment remains fragile as geopolitical risks escalate. With higher crude prices, potential foreign capital outflows, and persistent global uncertainty, analysts suggest the rupee may continue to face downward pressure in the short term.
Experts believe the RBI's interventions can cushion volatility for now, but a prolonged conflict or further escalation could overwhelm defensive measures.
👀 What Traders Are Watching
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Crude oil trends and Middle East updates
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Any policy announcements or signals from major global central banks
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FPI activity and India’s trade balance trajectory
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Ongoing RBI actions to stabilize the currency
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