🌍 Why Russia & China Are Alarmed
1. Unilateral Escalation
Russia strongly condemned the strikes as “absolutely unprovoked aggression” and issued stark warnings of “catastrophic consequences” if the US does not immediately back off. China echoed this, labelling the bombings illegal and predicting a destabilizing ripple effect across the region.
2. Strategic Reinforcement of Alliances
This incident spotlights the increasingly cohesive “Axis of Upheaval”—China, Russia, and Iran—
whose growing military and diplomatic cooperation, including joint naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, signals a challenge to Western dominance.
3. UN Diplomacy & Economic Stakes
China and Russia are expected to use their UN Security Council memberships to block any US-led push for more sanctions or authorization of military action. They could also coordinate substantial economic aid to Iran to counteract sanctions and help it continue funding strategic programs. The Strait of Hormuz threatens to become another flashpoint, especially if Iran follows through on parliamentary intent to close it—a move that could cripple global energy flows.
🔥 What This Means for Global Stability
| Risk Area | Concern |
|---|---|
| Middle East War | US & Israel attacks risk provoking major retaliation from Iran or proxies, like missile strikes or disrupting oil routes |
| Global Economic Shock | Oil prices already spiked ~5%; closing Hormuz could propel Brent crude above $100/barrel, triggering inflation and energy crises |
| Broader Geopolitical Friction | US leadership faces pushback from European allies, Russia, China, and operations could derail diplomatic efforts at NATO and UN |
| Potential Multipolar Conflict | US military voices warn that conflicts may quickly multiply—Asia, Europe, Middle East—due to deepening China-Russia-Iran defense alignment |
🛡️ What Comes Next?
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Immediate Diplomatic Push: Europe, Russia, and China are actively pressing for urgent de-escalation, pushing for negotiating tables and ceasefires.
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Monitoring Iran’s Moves: Analysts are watching closely for Iran’s next steps—missile strikes, proxy attacks, or closing the Strait.
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Global Markets Brace: Energy, defense, and cyber security sectors are especially sensitive now. Higher oil prices are likely and markets may react sharply.
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